What are each national team’s chances of winning the World Cup? We’ve built a statistical model to try to answer that question rigorously. The model works in two steps: first we measure each team’s ...

Abstract: Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) has the advantages of large coverage and flexibility, which could be applied in disaster management to provide wireless services to the rescuers and victims.

Final pre-match blend: market odds (de-vigged) 40% / ML ensemble 40% / Poisson 15% / form 5%. Per-target models (research-driven, all backtested on held-out 2025–26): Target Baseline New model Method ...

The tools of probability theory, and of the related field of statistical inference, are the keys for being able to analyze and make sense of data. These tools underlie important advances in many ...

Log-linear Poisson models provide a principled framework for modeling such count data through covariate-dependent intensity functions. This study develops a Bayesian formulation of the Poisson ...

The project begins with Poisson regression to model expected goals as a function of ranking differences, home advantage, and derived strength metrics. Overdispersion is tested using Pearson χ² / ...